Did anybody explain Starbucks success as perfect timing of product release with the tidal rise of outsourcing and emergence of Freelance labour? As I am searching for my next startup I watched Bill Gross, founder of Idealab, TED talk where he identifies timing as the biggest factor of success for a startups.
As reatail investors we are pushed towards dollar cost averaging and advised against timing the market, howaver here as entrepreneurs we are told that timing the market is the biggest success factor? What gives?
I know that Howard Schultz is from Brooklyn and Sara Horowitz runs the Freelancers Union out of Brooklyn. Do they even know each other? Regardless, I seriously doubt that in 1987 as he was taking ownership of Starbucks, Howard Schultz made a calculated analysis looking at the level of outsourcing among US business and the rising number of skilled class of career jugglers and independents who get income from contract gigs, projects, part-time jobs, temp work, moonlighting and consulting and said to himself: all those wonderful people without a stable income source will permanently need a temporary place to work from, why don’t I create Starbucks. I do not think he knew that.
The story we are told is more intuitive. “When I walked in this store for the first time—I know this sounds really hokey—I knew I was home,” Schultz remembered. “I can’t explain it. But I knew I was in a special place, and the product kind of spoke to me.” So that sounds a lot more like the follow your passion and intuition advice than a calculated planned well thought out success driving strategy is the only way to go advice.
Perhaps we can find a happy median in value investing: find what you love and wait for affordable pricing before buying to hold and cherish. Find your passion and wait for your opportunity to enter the market?
Can we really benefit from the Bill Grosse’s insight about importance of timing in the success of a startup? Or do I have to rely on my gut feeling telling me that social finance is where it’s at. This is the opportunity of our life time because it viscerally feels like home to me?
If I am looking to join a FinTech startup targeting the rise of social finance, what would be mine freelance union equivalent factor? What would be that yet unseen wind which will drive Starbucks type of success for social finance space?
If you want the answer or to discuss this further you can meet me at my office, the local Starbucks.